The Brent crude oil price stood at $102.05 per barrel at 7am Eastern Time on 9 September 2026, up $2.20 from the previous morning and roughly $35 higher than a year ago.
The rise comes against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and tight supply, even as analysts at Goldman Sachs Research forecast Brent will average about $76 per barrel and trade within a $70-$85 range, well below current levels.
Goldman Sachs flags Iran supply risk for Brent crude oil price
Goldman Sachs Research has highlighted how geopolitics can reshape global supply. After the US left the nuclear deal with Iran in May 2018, Iran’s liquids exports declined by 2.4 million barrels per day up to the start of the pandemic, with exports to OECD countries falling to zero.
A similar disruption on today’s tighter market could amplify price swings beyond what analysts currently project.
Supply and demand remain the primary drivers of where oil trades day to day. Wars, sanctions, OPEC+ production decisions, and shifts in economic growth all feed into the price. When fears of a slowdown or conflict rise, oil can move sharply in either direction.
What the pump price actually reflects
The figure at a petrol station forecourt is not simply the crude price. Refining costs, distribution, taxes, and the retailer’s margin all feed in. Crude oil typically accounts for over half of the final pump price.
When oil rises, pump prices tend to follow quickly. When oil falls, pump prices ease back more slowly, a pattern known as “rockets and feathers.”
The US Energy Information Administration uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook, given that it prices much of the world’s traded crude and offers the most representative view of global oil markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) serves as the main North American benchmark but has a narrower geographic scope.
History shows how volatile the Brent crude oil price can be. The early 1970s brought a sharp shock when Middle Eastern producers imposed an embargo during the Yom Kippur War. Prices collapsed in the mid-1980s as non-OPEC supply grew. A demand surge sent the price spiking in 2008, only for the global financial crisis to drag it back down. During the 2020 Covid lockdowns, demand collapsed so severely that Brent fell below $20 per barrel.
The role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In the event of a sudden supply disruption, the US government can draw on crude stockpiles held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve is designed to provide short-term support for consumers and keep critical services running, including emergency services and public transport. It is not intended as a long-term fix.
Oil and natural gas prices are also linked. If oil becomes expensive, some industries switch parts of their operations to natural gas where they can, lifting demand and pushing natural gas prices higher in turn.
In the US, domestic drilling policy also shapes expectations. In 2025, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the previous administration’s restrictions on Arctic drilling.
Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average about $76 suggests the market expects conditions to ease from current levels, though the geopolitical factors the bank cited, including Iran’s export capacity, remain live risks.
