The Elliott Hill Nike turnaround is grinding through its second year with wholesale recovering but digital sales falling, shares trading around $40 and analysts warning there are no quick fixes for the world’s largest sportswear brand.
Hill, who spent more than 32 years at Nike before retiring in 2020, was brought back in September 2024 to replace John Donahoe as chief executive. His appointment sparked an audible cheer on Nike’s 400-acre campus in Beaverton, Oregon, and sent shares up roughly 8% in after-hours trading.
That euphoria has long since faded.
Elliott Hill Nike turnaround: the full-year numbers
Full-year revenue came in nearly flat year on year at $46.4 billion, according to Sporting Goods Intelligence. The split tells the story of Hill’s dilemma: wholesale revenue rose 6% to $27.5 billion, while direct-to-consumer revenue fell 6% to $17.7 billion.
Fourth-quarter figures compound the picture. Revenue fell 1% to $11 billion, with Nike Direct down 7%, digital sales down 12%, and Nike-owned stores also down 7%.
‘The initial excitement around the appointment has been replaced by a realisation that this is a long, hard slog,’ said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData Retail. ‘There are no real quick fixes here.’
Nike’s current share price of around $40 is roughly half its 52-week high and a fraction of its 2021 peak, making it the lowest-priced member of the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Wholesale repairs cannot offset wider weakness
Hill’s clearest win is in wholesale. He rebuilt relationships with retailers including Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker and JD Sports, and fourth-quarter wholesale revenue rose 4% to $6.6 billion. Running has also delivered five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, adding roughly $1 billion in revenue over that period.
But gains in one area keep being swallowed by losses elsewhere. Greater China has now posted eight consecutive quarters of declining sales. Saunders described the China business as ‘a long way from being fixed’, adding: ‘You can’t fix Nike unless you fix China.’
Nike says Hill’s immediate priority was stabilising the business by clearing excess inventory, rebuilding wholesale and fixing its biggest sneaker franchises. Longer-term restructuring around individual sports categories, the company says, could take 24 to 36 months to show fully in financial results.
‘We are not optimising for short-term outcomes that could compromise the strength of the brand,’ a Nike spokesperson said.
Simeon Siegel, senior managing director at Guggenheim Partners, acknowledged the turnaround ‘has been taking longer’ but pointed to North America, Nike’s largest geography, where revenue has returned to growth. He said that recovery could offer ‘a preview of what could eventually happen elsewhere’, though a sceptic might see ‘falling dominoes, house on fire.’
Cultural relevance remains a harder problem to quantify. Competitors including Hoka, On, New Balance and Asics have turned running shoes into everyday lifestyle products, capturing demand Nike once dominated. Saunders said Nike ‘has lost its edge’ and that it remains ‘very unclear as to what Nike really stands for’ in the lifestyle segment.
Jordan Brand offers one test of whether Hill’s ‘sport is back’ strategy can connect with younger shoppers. He has deliberately restricted supply of classic retro styles such as the Jordan 1 to rebuild scarcity, sacrificing near-term sales. Saunders noted that retro Adidas styles have attracted renewed resale interest while many Jordans have struggled to match their previous heat.
Nike says changes across its business could take until 2027 to show fully in its results. With a market cap of about $60 billion, it remains the world’s largest sportswear brand, and Siegel noted that consumers are still buying at scale. ‘Whether people like Nike, people are certainly buying Nike,’ he said. ‘That’s a fact. That’s not an opinion.’
