A push to charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering copycat tolls on shipping lanes worldwide, analysts warn, with 90% of global trade moving by sea and every category of cargo potentially affected.
Iran is demanding a 5% or 7% service fee per barrel of oil passing through the strait, a levy that could generate close to $20 billion annually before any charges on gas, petrochemicals, fertiliser or container goods are added. Oman is separately discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all, Reuters reports.
The waterway handles roughly 25% of global oil supply. According to the U.S. Congressional Research Service, approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products moved through Hormuz during 2025.
Strait of Hormuz tolls signal end of ‘freedom of the seas’
‘I think that the “freedom of the seas” is dead,’ said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk for energy intelligence firm Kpler.
‘The way that we’ve known maritime security is moving into a new era, and the rules are still getting rewritten,’ Brouhard told Fortune. ‘It’s going to be expensive; it’s going to be inflationary; and it’s also going to create a lot of benefits for people who start onshoring industrialization.’
The freedom of the seas is the centuries-old principle that maritime transit should be open to all nations. It was enshrined in Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points and is carried today through the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas.
Brouhard said the trend was already under way before the Iran conflict, accelerated by what she described as the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ of regionalism under President Trump. ‘The post-World War II order is burning to the ground,’ she said.
Contagion risk for Malacca, Gibraltar and beyond
Analysts fear the Strait of Hormuz tolls dynamic could spread. Brouhard said Malaysia and Indonesia could move to charge passage fees through the Strait of Malacca, and Morocco could do the same at the Strait of Gibraltar.
‘Once Iran said they were going to charge a fee, then everyone is going to charge a toll,’ she said. ‘This is one of the last known natural resources that someone can make money off of.’
Indonesia and Malaysia have publicly discussed tolling the Strait of Malacca this year but have also said they will hold back for now.
Bob McNally, former White House energy adviser under George W. Bush and founder of the Rapidan Energy Group, believes Iran would likely settle for small, voluntary service fees rather than heavy-handed levies. ‘We look at the whole question of Hormuz tolls as mainly an Iranian bargaining chip that they’re willing and able to give up for big sanctions relief and other things,’ he said. ‘We just don’t think heavy-handed Iranian tolls are going to be the future. That could be wrong.’
Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group, expects the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to make regular payments to Iran to keep the strait open, rather than a per-vessel fee system. ‘My expectation has been that money will be delivered to the Iranians in some way, shape, or form,’ Brew said. ‘The Iranians won’t accept a nominal, minor amount. They’ll want something more substantial.’
Shipping companies and insurers are already threatening to cancel coverage on vessels that pay tolls or involuntary fees, though analysts say that resistance may not be enough to halt a fee regime.
Brouhard warned that container ships, not just oil tankers, would face charges in a world of widespread strait tolls. ‘You’re going to have higher prices on the transit of container goods,’ she said. ‘It’s not just commodities, it’s everything. All global trade is happening on the water.’
Reuters reported that the shipping industry has described the proposed Hormuz passage deal as not feasible, with negotiations between Washington and Tehran over the fee question still unresolved.
