Switzerland goes to the polls on Sunday (14 June) to decide whether to back the Switzerland population cap vote, a world-first referendum that would limit the country’s residents to 10 million people and reshape its economic ties with the European Union.
The initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), is billed as a sustainability measure to curb immigration. Business leaders at some of the country’s largest employers say it would cripple access to skilled foreign workers.
Polling by Swiss research company gfs.bern found that 45% of voters who intend to participate would definitely or probably vote in favour, while 52% would definitely or probably vote against. A further 3% remain undecided.
What the Switzerland population cap vote would mean in practice
If passed, the Swiss government would be required to introduce measures to stop the population exceeding 10 million before 2050. Switzerland currently has a population of 9.1 million.
The first set of restrictions, including tighter rules on asylum and family reunification, would kick in once permanent residents reached 9.5 million. A further mechanism would require termination of the Free Movement of Persons agreement with the EU if the population exceeded 10 million for two consecutive years, cutting off the right of EU citizens to work, study, and live in Switzerland.
EU citizens have held the right to reside and work in Switzerland since a free movement agreement was reached in 2002. Since then, Switzerland’s GDP has grown from $314bn to more than $1tn, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Reto Föllmi, professor of international economics at the University of St. Gallen, says immigration has been central to that growth. ‘Immigration has allowed many young and well-educated people to come to Switzerland and has allowed the pharmaceutical, chemical, and IT industries to grow and hire specialised talent,’ he said.
Roche and Nestlé raise the alarm
Roche, which employs 15,500 people in Switzerland and over 100,000 globally, says it is ‘highly concerned’ about the initiative. Jürg Erismann, site manager at Roche Basel, said: ‘Our industry is particularly research-intensive and has a very high proportion of highly qualified employees, which the small Swiss market cannot cover on its own. Restricting this access would directly impact our ability to innovate.’
Nestlé has also warned that a population limit risks weakening Switzerland as a business hub. Christoph Meier, its global head of external communications, said: ‘Limiting the population and restricting access to skilled workers would be critical, as this could weaken Switzerland as a business location.’
Switzerland has the highest number of Fortune Global 500 companies per capita in the world. Approximately 30% of its population was born abroad.
Business federation economiesuisse, whose members include Roche, Glencore, Google, Amazon Web Services, and Accenture’s Swiss divisions, has been vocal in its opposition. Chief economist Rudolf Minsch said: ‘Major restrictions on immigration would weaken innovation, growth, and competitiveness, while making it harder for companies to attract international talent.’
Martina Mousson, senior project manager at gfs.bern, notes that, although Switzerland voted on a similar initiative in 2014, this is the first time a country has sought to define a fixed absolute population ceiling rather than a percentage target.
Supporters of the cap argue that population growth is placing too much pressure on housing, transport, schools, and hospitals, and that the limit would help protect natural resources.
Switzerland’s old-age dependency ratio now stands at 30.2 dependents per 100 working-age people, the highest since records began. Föllmi argues that immigration has helped smooth those demographic pressures.
Employers’ association Die Arbeitgeber, which represents more than 100,000 enterprises employing around two million people, has warned that halting immigration would ‘create substantial economic risks and weaken Switzerland’s long-term prosperity.’
Stefan Heini, the association’s head of communications, said: ‘A rigid ceiling of 10 million residents ignores Switzerland’s demographic realities and would jeopardise key agreements with the EU, which are essential for the country’s economic success.’
Sunday’s result will determine whether Switzerland becomes the first country to enshrine a population limit in its constitution.
