President Trump’s plan to take majority control of Venezuelan oilfields has been branded a Venezuela oil deal insider arrangement benefiting businessmen close to both the Trump and Rodríguez administrations, energy and geopolitical analysts have warned.
Gregory Brew, senior analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Fortune: ‘If the U.S. scheme in Venezuela sounds colonial, that’s because it is. This is the Trump administration trying to increase U.S. revenue from Venezuelan oil production. It’s extremely unusual. It’s probably unprecedented in the history of the international oil industry.’
Under the agreement, the US would control more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela. The US Department of Defense would receive a 55% stake in the private Venezuelan oil producer North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP).
NABEP is controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt López and his family, who have fostered close relationships with both the Trump and Rodríguez administrations.
According to Fox Business, the US will also have the right to buy 20% of the oil produced from all current and future NABEP-operated fields at the cost of production, a provision that adds further weight to concerns about the deal’s commercial structure.
‘From a certain angle, this looks like an insider deal to profit businessmen who are close to Delcy and who are also close to Trump and his inner circle,’ Brew said.
Iran rejects deal as Venezuela oil deal insider row deepens
Washington’s attention is also divided by a deepening standoff with Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was prepared to reciprocate if the US honoured its commitments under the memorandum of understanding (MOU) first offered by the White House in June, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran made a similar offer on 26 August. The MOU technically expired on 17 August.
The MOU proposes an end to all hostilities, an end to sanctions, and $300 billion in reparations. It also requires Iran to ‘not procure or develop nuclear weapons’ but permits enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran’s nuclear needs.
Trump, however, showed no sign of accepting. ‘We are going to hit them hard,’ he told Fox News, in response to Iran’s previous strikes on US sites in the Gulf. A source told Axios the administration is considering a further set of relatively limited strikes to degrade Iran’s ability to hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Two supertankers were hit by unknown projectiles in the past 24 hours, Bloomberg reported. Iran has developed the ability to launch mines from rockets, a tactic that is complicating the US blockade. As the Wall Street Journal noted, Iran does not need to sink ships, it only needs to persuade shipowners, captains and insurers that the risk of encountering a mine is too high to make the transit.
Bond markets sell off as Brent crude hits $92
Global markets absorbed fresh turbulence amid the Iran conflict and a worldwide bond selloff.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.278%, approaching the 5.3% level that prompted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to deploy a bond buyback scheme previously. The UK 30-year gilt hit 5.8906%, a level not seen since 1998. Japan’s 10-year bond reached 2.992%, its highest since 1996.
Brent crude rose to $92 per barrel. S&P 500 futures were down 0.53% in morning trading after the index fell 0.33% the previous session. The FTSE 100 was down 1.18% before lunch in London.
The sardine trade is also feeling the strain. Morocco, the world’s top sardine supplier, saw fish landings fall nearly 46% between 2022 and 2024, with higher fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions compounding the pressure on fishermen already travelling further to find temperature-sensitive stocks. The global tinned fish market was worth roughly $10.24 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $17.97 billion by 2034.
The Venezuela oil deal insider controversy is set to intensify as Congress returns to scrutinise the terms of the NABEP arrangement, with no timeline yet given for a formal vote.
